Ukraine Daily Summary - Friday, October 13

Russia has economic strength to fight until 2025 -- Ukrainian forces intercept reconnaissance group near Russian border in Sumy Oblast -- Ukrainian, Bulgarian defense ministers sign memorandum on security cooperation -- Romania discovers more drone wreckage on its soil -- and more

Friday, October 13

Russia’s war against Ukraine

Ukrainian soldier fires with automatic grenade launcher AGS-17 on Russian position on Oct. 7, 2023. The Ukrainian army maintains its defense in the Kupiansk direction against the background of a new offensive by Russian forces on this part of the front (Roman Chop/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)

Budanov: Russia has economic strength to fight until 2025. Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said that Russia likely has the economic and technical capacity to continue its war against Ukraine until 2025 or 2026 in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda released on Oct. 12.

Dutch minister: F-16 training in Romania for Ukrainian pilots to begin ‘within weeks.’ The Netherlands is set to send over a dozen F-16 jets to a training center in Romania so that Ukrainian pilots can begin training on the aircraft within the next weeks, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said in Brussels on Oct. 11.

Ukrainian forces intercept reconnaissance group near Russian border in Sumy Oblast. Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces operating in Sumy Oblast intercepted a reconnaissance group of eight Russian soldiers headed in the direction of local critical infrastructure installations, Lieutenant General Serhii Naiev said on Oct. 12.

Navy spokesman confirms Russian Black Sea Fleet ship damaged by explosion.

The “Pavel Derzhavin,” a patrol ship from Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, was damaged by an explosion, Ukrainian navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk told the Ukrainian service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on Oct. 12.

Shmyhal: Ukraine facing $42 billion budget deficit in 2024. Ukraine will need about $42 billion in economic assistance in 2024 to make up for the looming budget deficit, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said in his address to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) forum in Marrakesh, Morocco, on Oct. 11.

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ISW: Russian forces capture 4 square kilometers around Avdiivka. Russian forces have captured 4.5 square kilometers of territory from different directions around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast since Oct. 10, the Institute for the Study of War said in their latest assessment.

Ukrainian, Bulgarian defense ministers sign memorandum on security cooperation. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov met with his Bulgarian counterpart Todor Tagarev, and signed a memorandum on bilateral security cooperation.

Minister: Blackouts possible in winter but only short-term. Russian mass attacks in the coming winter may lead to blackouts, but they will be only short-lasting, Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said on Oct. 12. “Of course, if there are massive strikes, they will cause significant damage to the power system, and blackouts are possible,” the minister said on the air.

Romania discovers more drone wreckage on its soil. A crater left behind by the drone’s explosion was found at 5 a.m. on Oct. 12, roughly three kilometers west of the town of Plauru, which lies just across the Danube River from the Ukrainian port of Izmail, the ministry said.

Putin visits Kyrgyzstan in first trip abroad since ICC arrest warrant. Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on Oct. 12 and met with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov ahead of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit.

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Ukraine war latest: All 59 people killed in Hroza identified

The death toll of the Russian missile strike against the village of Hroza in Kharkiv Oblast has risen to 59, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko reported on Oct. 12.

Photo: Amadeusz Mikolaj Swierk/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

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Ukraine faces onslaught at Avdiivka as Russia launches new offensive

After months of a relatively static siege, Russian forces launched a heavy assault in the direction of the front-line town of Avdiivka, backed up by armor, artillery, and air strikes.

Photo: Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

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That diamond ring? It may have helped pay for Russia’s war

Soon after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, luxury brands like Tiffany and Cartier announced they had stopped buying Russian diamonds. An investigation by the Kyiv Independent has found evidence to the contrary.

Illustration: Karolina Gulshani

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Human cost of war

All 59 killed in Hroza attack identified. The total number of people killed in Russia’s attack on Hroza in Kharkiv Oblast has risen to 59, and all of the bodies have been identified, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko reported on Oct. 12.

Russian strikes on Donetsk Oblast kill 2, including child, injure 7. The report said the child was killed in a Russian strike on the village of Bahatyr in the Volnovakha district. According to the prosecutors, his six-year-old brother sustained injuries to his torso, and his 31-year-old mother was hospitalized with multiple lacerations.

Russian shelling kills 1 person in Chornobaivka. A 71-year-old man was killed after Russian shelling in Chornobaivka, Kherson Oblast, on Oct. 12, the regional military administration reported on Telegram.

International response

Czechia, Denmark to jointly donate arms to Ukraine. As a first package of the newly announced aid, Ukraine will receive around 50 infantry fighting vehicles and tanks, 2,500 pistols, 7,000 rifles, 500 light machine guns, 500 sniper rifles, electronic warfare and surveillance equipment, and an unspecified amount of artillery shells.

NATO to hold nuclear exercises as Russia plans to withdraw from test ban treaty. NATO will conduct a major exercise involving fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear warheads, though live bombs will not be involved in the drill, the alliance said on Oct. 12.

Estonian government approves transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.

The Estonian government has approved a draft law that, if passed by parliament, will allow frozen Russian assets to be transferred to Ukraine, Prime Minister Kaja Kallas announced on Oct. 12.

European Investment Bank earmarks 30 million euros for Ukraine infrastructure.

The European Investment Bank (EIB) is allocating an additional €30.7 million to Ukraine for infrastructure development projects covering municipal reconstruction and urban public transport, the lender announced Oct. 12.

US sanctions two companies for violating Russian oil price cap. The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on two companies and two of their tankers for transporting Russian crude oil at a price higher than the $60-per-barrell cap, the department announced on Oct. 12.

Russian Olympic Committee suspended after seizing Ukraine’s sporting organizations. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has suspended the Russian Olympic Committee “with immediate effect” for seizing control of Ukrainian sporting organizations, the organization said on Oct. 12.

In other news

Foreign Ministry: 7 Ukrainians killed in Hamas attack on Israel. The number of Ukrainian citizens killed in Hamas’ attack on Israel has risen to seven, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oleh Nikolenko reported on Oct. 12. Nine more Ukrainians were injured, and nine others are considered missing, he added.

Ternopil enlistment office staff members charged with torture, illegal imprisonment. On the evening of Oct. 6, the prosecutors said one of the suspects, accompanied by two unidentified people in military uniforms, stopped a local resident in Ternopil to check his documents. Upon discovering that the man was born in Russia, the alleged perpetrators decided to take him to the local recruitment office. When the resident refused, the suspect and his companions physically assaulted him and forcibly took him to their headquarters.

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